The Green Movement’s Mission in the Face of Sanctions

Given the concerns of the international community, the democratic movement in Iran cannot expect world leaders to desist from placing new sanctions on Iran or to lift previous sanctions. Rather, in line with its own interest and the interests of Iran, the Green movement must attempt to raise awareness among the Iranian public about the toll of sanctions and thus mobilize public opinion against sanctions to pressure the government to change its behavior. If the Iranian public, especially the lower classes, learn about the impact of international sanctions on their lives, the public will grow more estranged from the government and support for the Green movement will grow stronger. The second step is to propose a solution for how the international community can achieve its goal without imposing new sanctions, or to propose solutions for increasing the success rate of sanctions while minimizing negative consequences for the democracy movement. Only then will the international community’s perspective on the Green movement in Iran grow more positive, making easier the country’s transition to democracy.

What line must the opposition Green movement take in face of the UN Security Council’s sanctioning of Iran? This is the top question on the minds of observers and political analysts focused on the sanctions issue. Questions of this kind, for instance, whether sanctions will impair Iran’s democratization process, remain unanswered despite the fact that they can produce important changes to the future of Iranian society. This essay will discuss the aims of sanctions and assess the task of the pro-democracy movement in Iran in this regard.

The aim of sanctions and evaluation of their impact

Sanctioning of countries by other states or by regional and international organizations pursues a clear aim–changing the behavior of the sanctioned state for improving global security and peace. Therefore, to evaluate whether sanctions are successful or unsuccessful, the rate of impact of the sanctions on the behavior of the sanctioned state must be considered. Sanctions are officially recognized as an international tool; they are in no way a lever for regime change.

The failure to produce the desired results in most cases prompted the United Nations to modify its sanctioning strategy in the early 1990s. At this time, general sanctions were replaced by “smart” and “targeted” sanctions, with the goal of increasing the effectiveness of sanctions and reducing the negative impacts on citizens. Instead of placing a state under general sanctions, smart sanctions target specific organizations, companies and individuals. But the question remains: Has this change helped achieve the goal of sanctions?

Evaluating the impact of the 30-year economic embargo by the United States government and three rounds of sanction resolutions by the UN Security Council against Iran is not an easy task. However, measuring in terms of the goal of sanctions, it may be said that these sanctions have not been successful. Iran’s behavior within the international order and international relations has not only remained unchanged in regards to the demands of the international community, but has become even more aggressive under the Ahmadinejad administration. Undoubtedly, these sanctions have had intensely damaging effects on Iran’s economy, industry, banking system, aviation, etc., but these effects do not signify the success of the sanctions. Since the main point of sanctioning Iran has not yet been realized. if sanctions have been unsuccessful so far, how rational is it to impose new sanctions on Iran?

If previous sanctions appear to be unsuccessful or ineffective, the international community has only two options: harsher sanctions or military action. In such a scenario, proposing to preclude new sanctions effectively means replacing sanctions with war—an option that is undesirable for supporters of the country’s peaceful transition to democracy. This is why the United Nations has opted for smart sanctions: to increase the chance of success and thus to prevent the occurrence of new wars.

In such circumstances, while the international community is concerned about its security, the issues of transition to democracy for a society like Iran’s, and the impact of sanctions on the country’s process of democratization, are not priorities for world leaders. Therefore, the debate among Green activists about approving or disapproving of the UN Security Council’s recent resolution for new sanctions against Iran, and the impact of sanctions on the Green movement, will not so much influence the perspective of global decision-makers as it will marginalize the movement and alienate it from the international community. The question that the Green movement must answer today is: What types of sanctions can help the international community succeed in pressuring the Iranian government to change its behavior, or, what policy can substitute the aims of sanctions without intensifying sanctions? Without a viable alternative, citing the damaging effects of sanctions on the lives of ordinary citizens, or recalling how the Iraqi people suffered under the heavy shadow of embargos, does not constitute valid grounds for trying to dissuade world powers from placing new sanctions on Iran.

Why have sanctions failed?

The sanctions against Iran in the past 30 years, as mentioned above, have been unsuccessful. The most important reasons for this failure include the following:

1-    Lack of coordinated action by the international community in imposing sanctions
International relations experts believe that coordinated action by the international community in imposing sanctions on a country is a key to success. Sanctions work when there is a collective will among the international community for pressuring a state to change its behavior. In such conditions, any state under sanction will be forced to change its behavior and to compromise according to the will of the international community. No country in today’s world can continue its political, economic and social life in complete isolation.

2-    Insufficiently broad sanctions
Sanctions on Iran in the past 30 years, despite the enormous strain they have put on the country’s economy, have not been broad enough to force the Iranian government to change its behavior. These sanctions have not been “crippling” in any sense, and the Iranian government has been able to make up for the limitations resulting from US sanctions by working more closely with China and Russia.

3-    Lack of public awareness about the toll of sanctions
The one-sided propaganda promoted by state media and limitations on free, independent media has prevented public awareness on the sanctions issue and its consequences. Raising awareness about the toll of sanctions can influence public opinion and render it a weighty leverage in pressuring the government to change its behavior. 
Lastly, given the concerns of the international community, the democratic movement in Iran cannot expect world leaders to desist from placing new sanctions on Iran or to lift previous sanctions. Rather, in line with its own interest and the interests of Iran, the Green movement must attempt to raise awareness among the Iranian public about the toll of sanctions and thus mobilize public opinion against sanctions to pressure the government to change its behavior. If the Iranian public, especially the lower classes, learn about the impact of international sanctions on their lives, the public will grow more estranged from the government and support for the Green movement will grow stronger.

The second step is to propose a solution for how the international community can achieve its goal without imposing new sanctions, or to propose solutions for increasing the success rate of sanctions while minimizing negative consequences for the democracy movement. Only then will the international community’s perspective on the Green movement in Iran grow more positive, making easier the country’s transition to democracy.