New Sanctions and Iran’s Changing Society

As negotiations between Iran, the West, and the International Atomic Energy Agency over the issue of uranium exchange have gone nowhere, a new round of international sanctions appears certain. While the exact details of the sanctions have yet to be fully hammered out, it appears the nuclear showdown between Iran and the West has resumed with renewed vigor after a one-year hiatus. Now with the fifth resolution of the Security Council of the United Nations about to be issued against Iran, the Islamic Republic has made a name for itself in the world as being a threat to international peace and security.

As negotiations between Iran, the West, and the International Atomic Energy Agency over the issue of uranium exchange have gone nowhere, a new round of international sanctions appears certain. While the exact details of the sanctions have yet to be fully hammered out, it appears the nuclear showdown between Iran and the West has resumed with renewed vigor after a one-year hiatus. Now with the fifth resolution of the Security Council of the United Nations about to be issued against Iran, the Islamic Republic has made a name for itself in the world as being a threat to international peace and security.

Regardless of what the new sanctions package may entail and what impact they will have on relations between Iran and the international community, one cannot help wonder how the Green Movement of Iran will respond to the new sanctions and what type of sanctions it might be expecting. Before attempting to speculate on these questions, it is necessary to examine the impact of international sanctions on the Iranian economy and describe how Iran’s economy is standing up to the intensification of sanctions amidst changing conditions in the country.

Many anti-Government groups are fundamentally opposed to sanctions being imposed under current conditions. Among them are the patriotic and nationalistic-minded who take sanctions to be an affront to Iran by the West. They do not see any distinction between the West's treatment of Iran's government and Iran’s people. Other activists describe international sanctions aimed at the present government as ineffective and believe that these sanctions will only hurt people and civil society.

International sanctions against Iran began when the Ahmadinejad Administration began to undo the foreign policy of Mohammad Khatami’s previous reform administration and demonstrated a new pattern of behavior by violating previous agreements. Iran’s failure to halt uranium enrichment caused the matter to be transferred from the International Atomic Energy Agency to the United Nations Security Council. Since then, based on Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, four resolutions have been issued against Iran; resolutions that Ahmadinejad describes as scraps of paper.

Following the passage of these four resolutions, many government financial institutions in Iran and all companies and institutions related to the military and nuclear programs and their high-ranking managers have been subject to sanctions. The approved sanctions, although not tough enough to have a direct effect on Iranian society, have had an impact on the Iranian economy.

Although those opposing the Government consider problems such as increasing inflation, decreasing investment in the country (both by foreign and domestic investors), and a drop in important economic indexes were considered a result of the administration’s incompetent economics management, economists and Government critics agree that sanctions also played a role in the deteriorating state of the economy. This is one point clearly stated in the third, detailed open letter from 60 of Iran’s prominent economists to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In one part of the letter, Iranian economists stated, "The Ninth Administration's misguided policy on trade and unstable and tension-causing interactions with the outer world have imposed, in addition to missed potential gains of commerce and foreign investment, heavy costs on the country’s economy. Today, as a result of UN sanctions, a good part of the country's import and export is conducted by middle-men who, besides imposing further risk, have caused a several-billion-dollar increase in the final price of exports and imports."

According to these economists, due to post-Revolution conditions and the eight-year war with Iraq, economic transactions between Iran and the rest of the world in the period following 1979 have been affected by ideological and political currents which have strained Iran's interaction with the world and the country's economy has in turn suffered great harm. Iranian economists also believe that factors such as economic sanctions by the United States and the UN Security Council against Iran, the critical condition of the country's economy, and political relations with the West have all impeded Iran’s ability to develop economic relations with the world.

Yet, despite the various problems that they have inflicted on the country's economy, international sanctions have never been able to modify the Government’s behavior. The Government managed to stay its course through a rough election and by rigging, cheating, and repressing protestors, preserved its executive power one more time. Now this administration, which has risen out of a rigged election, has set out to obtain and develop nuclear technology under conditions in which it is viewed with distrust by both the international community and by the people of Iran. Given the present situation, it is likely that opponents have realized that the Government's need to stabilize its political status, whether inside or outside the country, is what motivates it to go astray towards the production of nuclear arms.

Therefore, it seems that for the Iranian middle class, the issue of obtaining nuclear technology is not so much one of national pride—however much Iranians do take pride in the achievements of their nuclear scientists in the field of uranium enrichment technology. It does not appear, for example, that they are about to compare this with the nationalization of the oil industry (something the pro-government forces would very much like to have happen in order to create national unity and pride for the purpose of achieving nuclear technology.) When the oil industry was nationalized, the question of independence was discussed along with that of democracy; however, Mosaddegh never played the oil card to consolidate an autocratic power. It is quite plausible to assume that by taking into account the present behavior of the Government on one hand, and its increased effort to expand uranium enrichment on the other, the Islamic Republic has decided to follow in the footsteps of North Korea.

Thus, the Greens of Iran and the international community may somehow be made to feel compelled to join sides against a ruling power that they do not trust and of which they share a common fear of becoming a nuclear power. Moreover, as the probability of Iran attaining nuclear power becomes more certain, the less chance there is of being able to enjoy one moment’s peace of mind. Therefore, it is foreseeable that by sensing a common danger the two sides will join hands in the future.

This common threat might facilitate some sort of unwritten coordination between those who impose the sanctions and those who are the inadvertent target of these sanctions. It is possible that this coordination could result in the ratification of smart sanctions designed to inflict less harm on the middle class of Iran and also provide an opportunity for the Greens to take the initiative and exert more pressure on the establishment. This, then, could open the window of opportunity for reaching both the goals of the international community and those of the Green Movement, although there are still obstacles in this path.

The readiness to reach out to the outer world that can perhaps be seen among the members of the Green Movement has not appeared in the leadership of this Movement. In addition, there are difficulties with the ratification of sanctions that would hit the middle-class masses of the society to a lesser degree but at the same time seriously challenge the Government.

In any case, it seems that the faster the effects of international sanctions on the Government in Iran become apparent, the less harm the people of this country will suffer. This is a principle that designers of sanctions should seriously take into consideration. Prolonging sanctions will not only fail to further the cause of sanction designers but will eventually exert economic pressure on the people. One may think of sanctions as a very powerful and painful medication. Once administered, if it is seen to have no timely effect on eradicating the disease, it will gradually destroy the healthy tissue. The development of such coordination between the Greens and the imposers of sanctions could go a long ways towards steering the Government to alter its behavior in accordance with the demands of the Iranian people and the international community.